Top 10 first basemen with DH thrown in: 2009

So here is part two of the only fantasy baseball draft strategy guide you’ll need. Today is first base and DH. Why the combo? Because there are no good DH’s anymore. The days of Edgar Martinez are long gone. Great, adding Edgar Martinez to the post will probably spawn about three hits to this site for the whole year. Speaking of hits … guess who is the top first baseman? Albert Pujols … which of course brings us to his wife Deidre Pujols which will generate more hits than Edgar Martinez. For all of you coveters of another man’s wife here’s some pictures of her above … ummm let’s get started. So read on and good luck or Godspeed or something.

Newspaperman

• 1. Albert Pujols
• 2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Ryan Howard
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Justin Morneau
  6. Lance Berkman
  7. Prince Fielder
  8. Adrian Gonzalez
  9. Kevin Youkilis
  10. Derrek Lee
  11. David Ortiz* (DH only)
  12. Joey Votto
  13. Garrett Atkins
  14. Carlos Delgado
  15 Jim Thome

Comments: It is with mixed emotions that we welcome Miguel Cabrera to the top 10 first baseman list. In his five years or so in the league, Cabrera has played three positions and in one league several years ago I think he even qualified at shortstop. Here he moves to a classic power-batting average position and falls into place right behind Mr. Pujols. The decision between Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira for Nos. 3 and 4 really depends on if you can stomach Howard’s batting average. Howard gets the nudge here because of his ability to dominate in two categories: homers and RBIs. Justin Morneau crept up my first-base rankings this year after another solid effort in 2008. We’re all still waiting for that 35-home run potential to return but his penchant for driving in runs and ability to maintain a .300 average keeps him this high, slightly ahead of the aging Lance Berkman.

The one player on this list whose value may be in question is Kevin Youkilis. Youk’s power showed up big time last year and his RBI total was off the charts, making him a great value play in 2008. But what does this mean in 2009? Will he maintain his power? Can he eclipse 100 RBIs again? There are many questions here, too many to consider him a top-flight first sacker.

The two players I like to juxtapose here are Garrett Atkins and Joey Votto. Atkins may get drafted as a top-seven first basemen by some owners who remember Atkins’ days as at the hot corner. But fact is his numbers have declined over the years and with Matt Holliday out of the Colorado lineup I don’t like him for 2009. I prefer up-and-coming Joey Votto, who seems to me as if he could eventually rank right between Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Morneau.

One popular young name you’ll notice that is missing here is Chris Davis of the Texas Rangers. If an owner were to go into the draft and decide to take Davis before dinosaurs Carlos Delgado or Jim Thome, I would not have any issues with that. For these rankings purposes, I feel that Thome and Delgado’s proven power track record still makes them better plays in 2009.

FreeSanJose

• 1. Albert Pujols
• 2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Ryan Howard
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Lance Berkman
  6. Prince Fielder
  7. David Ortiz
  8. Justin Morneau
  9. Joey Votto
  10. Adrian Gonzalez
  11. Kevin Youkiliis
  12. Adam Dunn
  13. Carlos Pena
  14. Chris Davis
  15. Carlos Delgado

Comments: As deep as this category usually seems, I have always been a big fan of making sure you don’t lose ground here. Simply put, if you don’t have Albert Pujols, you’re starting from an immediate disadvantage. Luckily, Cabrera, Howard, Teixeira and Berkman all match up quite nicely. All of them are practically guaranteed to hit between 35-45 homers, drive in 110+ runs and score 90+. Fielder, Ortiz and Morneau will probably reach those marks too, but they just feel slightly less guaranteed of doing so. It’s after those nine you really have more to worry about. Votto has really awesome potential, but you’re crazy if you draft him without drafting a more proven bat as a backup. Adrian Gonzalez, for as good as he’s been, still underwhelms me. Kevin Youkilis’ power kinda came out of nowhere last year and I’m unconvinced it’s for real. Dunn is moving to a much less hitter-friendly park with far less talent around him. Pena’s power is for real, but he’s not going to hit for a great average. Davis has great upside, but has only played half a season at this level. Delgado showed he’s not through, but he works much better if you pair him with one of the youngsters on this list.

The Jon

• 1. Albert Pujols
• 2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Ryan Howard
  4. Prince Fielder
  5. Lance Berkman
  6. Mark Teixeira
  7. David Ortiz
  8. Kevin Youkilis
  9. Justin Morneau
  10. Derrek Lee
  11. Adrian Gonzalez
  12. Joey Votto
  13. Adam Dunn
  14. Carlos Pena
  15. Chris Davis

Comments: Even though The Jon put this all together, The Jon still clocks in as the third read for the first baseman ranking. Look, The Jon is atrocious when it comes to picking power bats. The urge to pick high hit/average guys is too strong and The Jon usually plays the stop-gap game of grabbing a first baseman in the 12th or 15th round that can blow up like Newpaperman’s Grady Sizemore doll. A bad strategy to be sure, but seeing how The Jon drafted Youkilis and Gonzalez last season, it can work. Saying Pujols is the top first baseman is pretty irrelevant seeing how he is now probably the first pick with Purple Lips being out. If you are undecided who to pick in the first round and Pujols is gone, go for Cabrera. FreeSanJose is right (blasphemy) you can’t lose ground at first base. It is the No. 1 power position. Go with humps such as Gonzalez (the quietest stats guy ever) or Garrett Atkins (the guy sucks) and you will spend your whole season trying to grab a first baseman with power. This will be the only time The Jon will say to target hitters in the .250 range by the names of Howard, Fielder and Dunn.

Couple of notes: Yeah, that top 10 list is pretty unorthodox, but those are the players The Jon would pick in that order. Too often fantasy guys try to go with common opinion when valuing a player and are afraid to go with their gut. Let’s stop playing that game shall we?

Screw Benito Teixeira and the hype that surrounds him. He’s a roller coaster. The kind that is made out of wood and makes your head shake a lot when it goes faster than 60 mph. Have fun with his three-month slumps.

And the allusion goes to: Here are the guys that can be had in the later rounds of the draft: Jorge Cantu, Aubrey Huff, Jose Lopez, Conor Jackson, Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi and Ryan Garko.

PoiDog

• 1. Albert Pujols
• 2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Ryan Howard
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Prince Fielder
  6. Lance Berkman
  7. Justin Morneau
  8. Kevin Youkilis
  9. Adrian Gonzalez
  10. David Ortiz
  11. Garrett Atkins
  12. Carlos Pena
  13. Aubrey Huff
  14. Chris Davis
  15. Joey Votto

Comments: Pujols and Cabrera are need no explanation as 1 and 2 so I will move on the the real debate, Howard vs. Teixeira. Ryan Howard gets the nod from me because he is not just the best power hitter, he is the best by far. Over the past 2 years he averages 10 more homes and 20 more RBI than the second best player in the league, Alex Rodriguez. Power is on the decline in the majors. He is the only lock to approach 50 homers every season. You can find other players to balance your batting average, but nobody else dominates the power categories like Howard. And he is good for 100+ runs and a good OBP. People knock Howard for his consitency, but I disagree. He is very consistent. Howard stinks for the first month or two and then goes on a tear the rest of the way. If you can manage his slow starts, he will carry you when you need him, in your playoff run. Tex is also a great option, but you can find other players to do what he does.

I took Prince next thinking last year was a sophmore slump, and 30 and 100 with a .280 average is not a bad down year for a guy who is 24. Berkman is as steady as they come but he is 33 now. The drop off is coming soon where Fielder is likely to improve.

I like Morneau, but he is a mystery. One year, he has a boat load of homers and hits .270, the next his power is down and he hits .300. He will produce in the end, but I want to know what I’m getting when I build my team. I believe in Youkilis. He is not spectacular, but he is as steady as they come and he steadily improved each of the past three years. He may not hit 29 homers again, but he is clutch in RBI situations and in the middle of a great lineup.

I like Adrian Gonzalez, but in that park and with that supporting cast, I don’t see him repeating last years efforts. I’m giving David Ortiz the benefit of the doubt on a bounce back year. He has been too good for too long and is worth the gamble if he slides in your draft.

Atkins and Pena are both good, not great and you know what they are going to give you. Clearly not the upper echelon, but they won’t hurt you if you go high on other positions and take them late.

Huff is a risk and has the tendency to perform every other year, but when is is on, he hits for power and average and you can get him late in your draft.

To round out my top 15, I’m going young with upside. Chris Davis and Joey Votto showed the potential to be across the board producers, granted there is a small sample size. They offer a lot more than stalwarts like Delgado and Thome and I believe there is a high probability that the youngster will far outperform the old guard this year.
Top 10 Catchers: 2009